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170 ask the guy who fold aa when you raised the river with jj if the mistake was catastrophic? did he win that day? would he have if he won that pot? you mean, it's wrong if the other player had a worse hand? as in, it's wrong if the results of that particular hand were unfavorable? that's not the way to analyze poker, cz; you know that. in that particular hand, how much did my opponent lose by folding? was it the whole pot? of course not. it's probabilities, percentages. how much do i lose if i fold my qq to river raise versus a pf 3-bettor when a k hits the river on a t883k board in a 8 pot? the answer depends on the action of the hand, the pot size, my opponent and his tendencies, how he views me, how he thinks i view him, and so on. but in no way does the amount i won or lost on my fold depend on the hand he happened to be holding that particular time. edit: and in no way is it anywhere near the sum of the whole pot. got joe tall but folding for 1 bet, on the river in big pots is generally wrong. yes, but we cannot ignore the action on the turn given the description of the players. you and i have made laydowns like this with such reads. peace, joe tall barry well if you mean a crying call when you have no chance of winning, fair enough. but the times i use it is when i'm near the low end of the probabilities of winning. if there's 11 bb in the pot and i think that i only have a 10% chance of winning, i call that a "crying call". el grande how can you say that you have to come up with a concrete number and then say it doesn't matter how you come up with it? that should tell you right there that the number is not sound. i think you are going overboard with quantitative analysis. you can't reduce your decision down to a number, even if you had an hour to decide. it can't be done accurately enough. there are things that just have to be done by feel. it's as legitimate a skill as knowing which hands to play. what happens if your opponent decided to mix up his play and is doing something out of his playbook? do you factor in the percentage of time he might be doing that? what about the guy who feels like bluffing this hand? the guy who you thought was typical but.
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